Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 10.887808 13.350378 16.103166 19.388416 23.181502 27.402449 32.432860
2026-02-01 7.405691 10.538798 14.442261 19.574721 26.050267 33.850919 43.850925
2026-02-08 5.282808 8.523583 12.935629 19.191934 27.625595 38.380049 52.882293
2026-02-15 3.850465 6.983655 11.606386 18.607154 28.584595 41.912596 60.623769
2026-02-22 3.121491 6.264598 11.227535 19.157619 30.968873 47.323358 70.994896
2026-03-01 2.406311 5.372403 10.394126 18.858499 32.016875 50.869644 78.947287
2026-03-08 1.921650 4.748695 9.855550 18.888414 33.469964 54.987515 87.821954
2026-03-15 1.433090 3.974761 8.908191 18.098720 33.534477 57.017253 93.747830
2026-03-22 1.213199 3.691948 8.782009 18.646769 35.712480 62.262825 104.543880
2026-03-29 1.005341 3.373169 8.525484 18.915377 37.421885 66.848094 114.526488
2026-04-05 0.843288 3.114037 8.337381 19.269650 39.272589 71.714551 125.104324
2026-04-12 0.712616 2.893731 8.188181 19.666554 41.201332 76.770942 136.146377
2026-04-19 0.541179 2.505734 7.631930 19.270491 41.821146 79.942631 144.727514
2026-04-26 0.435767 2.275871 7.396143 19.495375 43.589955 85.121709 156.760108
2026-05-03 0.326120 1.971149 6.907284 19.116554 44.189470 88.349260 165.775002
2026-05-10 0.235230 1.675596 6.364945 18.533782 44.327542 90.762658 173.526532
2026-05-17 0.196233 1.575456 6.330615 19.082551 46.695060 97.134715 188.017432
2026-05-24 0.144928 1.375059 5.956326 18.784360 47.339141 100.483529 197.570474
2026-05-31 0.111356 1.237163 5.733604 18.814182 48.638357 105.044033 209.309760
2026-06-07 0.073899 1.027686 5.215513 18.026950 48.159227 106.331078 215.481512
2026-06-14 0.060967 0.974374 5.215809 18.573288 50.548945 112.996796 231.152451
2026-06-21 0.047657 0.899374 5.116998 18.841061 52.345949 118.620967 245.173470
2026-06-28 0.037643 0.838198 5.053097 19.194237 54.349509 124.707552 260.185088